The indian military seems to believe that pakistan would not dare to use nuclear weapons first for fear of nuclear retaliation, so india will remain free to make use. Encourage the iaea, other international and regional bodies and institutes with the relevant resources and. Not only indiapakistan is two different identities, but also nuclear. And so what i thought id do today was talk aboutgive an overview of nuclear proliferation and the consequences of proliferation in south asia, between india and pakistan, which isas aaron mentionedan active and ongoing conflict where the threat of conventional war is persistent. Nuke proliferation in east asia affects international security. The relentlessness of the confrontations between these two nations makes inside nuclear south asia a must read for anyone wishing to gain a thorough understanding of the spread of nuclear weapons in south asia and the potential consequences of nuclear proliferation on the subcontinent. Powerful incentives exist in asia for countries to acquire nuclear weapons, including desires to alleviate insecurity and increase international status. Despite facing no danger of nuclear proliferation within the southeast asia region, asean was concerned that north koreas nuclear programme might. A must read for all interested in nuclear proliferation, protracted conflicts and south asian security. Not least among these challenges is the possibility that the pursuit of nuclear weapons or a nuclear option by. The effect of nuclear weapons on the behaviour of newly nuclear states, and the potential for future international crises, are of particular concern.
Three major issues need to be addressedi the north korean nuclear program, and in particular the impact of the october 2006 nuclear test on south asia. The treaty on the non proliferation of nuclear weapons, commonly known as the non proliferation treaty or npt, is an international treaty whose objective is to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, to promote cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, and to further the goal of achieving nuclear disarmament and general and complete disarmament. Nuclear proliferation research topic rising powers. Nuclear weapons and strategic security in south asia. Kroc institute for international peace studies at the university of notre dame, examines the threat posed by nuclear weapons proliferation in south asia. A case for assistance to unsafe nuclear arsenals contract number grant number program element number authors rehbein, robert h. On the one hand the concerns regarding further proliferation and fear of possible acquisition of nuclear weapons by terrorists or. Thus, this book provides both new insights into the domestic politics behind specific nuclear policy choices in south asia, a critique of narrow realist views of nuclear proliferation, and the. No security guarantees from or economic penalties imposed by. Disec preventing proliferation of nuclear weapons in the. Would the right policy, people and implementation could have made a difference in preventing the nuclearization of south asia. Nuclear weapons and conflict in south asia brookings institution. Raghavan was indias director general of military operations from 1992 to 1994.
Managing proliferation in south asia james martin center. The package will reportedly include a formal accounting of north koreas plutonium and plutoniumrelated nuclear facilities and sidedocuments regarding nuclear proliferation and uranium enrichment. Prospects for nuclear proliferation in asia the national. It has endorsed a united states proposal for a regional five power conference to consider non proliferation in south asia. The trump administration inherits a global nuclear non proliferation regime that has been more effective and durable than many observers expected, but the regime may now be coming under stress. Nuclear weapons proliferation in south asia has been a major international concern because of the regions violent history and because of india and pakistans refusal to accede to the international nonproliferation regime. The book provides an excellent empirical analysis of the nuclear choices of new nuclear states, india and pakistan. Tughral yamin expressed his views on the nuclear non proliferation regimes and their relevance to the strategic stability in south asia, he explained that the strategic stability in south asia is always teetering and the balance is not always in the favor of one country. South asia at the nuclear crossroads, a new study sponsored in part by the joan b. Hill says the declaration will not include an accounting of nuclear weapons, which are to be determined at a subsequent phase.
Strategic vision disarmament, nonproliferation and. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear trajectories available online. The world witnessed a major historical event in 1947 when subcontinent, which was governed as a one unit from khyber to burma since almost last one thousand years, partitioned by the ruling british empire resulting into two states namely india and. The united nations has defined nuclear weapons free zones as a multilateral agreement which bans the use of, development of, and deployment of nuclear weapons in a given area which includes oversight mechanisms. Lessons from south asia bcsia studies in international security belfer center studies in international security hagerty, devin t. These treaties cover latin america and the caribbean, the south pacific, southeast asia, africa and central asia. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of non proliferation 2 however, the events of 911 put across new considerations regarding nuclear proliferation. Primary focus of this paper is to test the hypothesis that indiapakistan nuclear developments are posing challenge for the established norms of the non proliferation treaty npt. Nuclear proliferation dynamics in protracted conflict. Nuclearization of south asia and the future of non. Hagerty concludes that relations between india and pakistan in recent years support the argument that nuclear proliferation does not necessarily destabilize international relations and may even reduce the risk of war. Lessons from south asia bcsia studies in international security belfer center studies in international security.
It has repeatedly proposed a nuclear free zone in south asia and has proclaimed its willingness to engage in nuclear disarmament and to sign the non proliferation treaty if india would do so. The conference welcomed the heightened commitment of the asean to preserve southeast asia as a nwfz and recognized its efforts in promoting and strengthening the implementation of the treaty as the regions contribution to achieving a nuclearweaponfree world, also noting the progress made by the treatys plan of action 20072012 in. Nuclear proliferation in south asia and role of usa. After the 1971 indopakistani war and the conclusion of the simla agreement in 1972, south asia had witnessed a state of equilibrium and relative stability. Whether india and pakistan convert their present devices into deliverable weapons, develop a command and control structure and doctrine and deploy them are. Addressing nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. New study examines nuclear weapons proliferation in south. This report, the ninth to be submitted pursuant to section 620fc of the foreign assistance act of 1961, as amended, provides an update on nonproliferation efforts in south asia, including efforts taken by the united states to achieve a regional agreement on nuclear nonproliferation, and a comprehensive list of the obstacles to concluding such an agreement. A nuclear weaponfree southeast asia and its continuing. Chinas proposed sale of nuclear reactors to pakistan will intensify nuclear rivalry with india. Deterrence instability and nuclear weapons in south asia. As a region of burgeoning economic and political importance, south asia offers a crucial test of proliferation s effects on the crisis behaviour of newly nuclear. Nuclear proliferation in south asia is in part a consequence of the. Project number task number work unit number performing organization names and addresses air university maxwell afb, al performing organization report number.
At issue, therefore, is the probability of a nuclear exchange between the two south asian adversaries which appeared to loom large in the early 1990s when the two countries had become nuclear capable. The southeast asian nuclear weapon free zone treaty seanwfz or the bangkok treaty of 1995, is a nuclear weapons moratorium treaty between 10 southeast asian memberstates under the auspices of the asean. As a region of burgeoning economic and political importance, south asia offers a crucial test of proliferations effects on the crisis behaviour of newly nuclear states. Nuclear proliferation in south asia is in part a consequence of the security dilemma existing in the subcontinent. So too in the case of india and pakistan taking the nuclear path in may 1998. The book begins with an analysis of the factors that led to. Nuclear proliferation in north east asia 23032017 the nuclear dimension of the crisis in the korean peninsula has been compounded since the end of the cold war, particularly since the north korean regime announced its withdrawal from the nuclear non proliferation treaty npt in january 2003.
Nuclear politics in world and south asia css, ias, upsc. The consequences of nuclear proliferation the mit press. Nuclear proliferation in south asia the power of nightmares. Sep 15, 2005 powerful incentives exist in asia for countries to acquire nuclear weapons, including desires to alleviate insecurity and increase international status. Nonproliferation challenges facing the trump administration. Southern asias nuclear powers council on foreign relations. Nuclear disarmament and south asia institute for energy and. Nuclear testban treaty organization ctbto, other nuclear weapon free zones, dialogue partners, nuclear weapon states and other friendly states, to seek their support for the implementation of the provisions of the seanwfz treaty. Nuclear proliferation in north east asia think tank. Similar to the nuclear non proliferation treaty, five treaties on regional nuclear weapons free zones require parties to conclude a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the iaea. A guide to india, pakistan, and the bombis available for free at nuclear south asia is the most comprehensive collection of perspectives regarding india and pakistans nuclear. The south asian region is at risk of a breakdown in strategic stability due to the complex dynamics that in turn is a challenge for the broader nuclear order.
The nuclear explosions of may 1998 by both india and pakistan disturbed this situation and created a whole new geostrategic environment. Meanwhile, south asia remains locked in an undeclared nuclear deterrence involving its two major states, india and pakistan. She joined the arms control association in 2011 as. Treaty on the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons wikipedia. For example, president kennedys prediction that the world could see 15 to 25 new nuclear states by the 1970s has not yet come to pass. Nuclear weapons proliferation, whether by state or nonstate actors, poses one of the greatest threats to international security today. Southeast asian nuclearweaponfreezone seanwfz treaty.
Khan network and its implications for wmd supply trends. Jan 06, 2018 the npt centric international nuclear order is based on legal, technical, political and normative pillars that have proven to be partially successful in achieving nuclear nonproliferation goals. The power of nightmares nuclear proliferation in south asia. Nuclear proliferation in the middle east and south asia. Meanwhile, nuclear powers have limited tools at their disposal to influence nuclear expansion in.
A nuclear weapon free southeast asia and its continuing strategic significance, contemporary. North korea proliferation issues arms control association. Nuclear proliferation in south asia asian security studies. Nuclear weapons and arms control in south asia after the. Fortunately, a new history of nuclear india and nuclear pakistan is emerging, a history by which scholars and policy.
May 21, 2012 the global nuclear nonproliferation regime. The first nuclear learning coursenuclear south asia. The first nuclear learning course nuclear south asia. This nuclear proliferation in south asia has raised the need to reexamine the question of nuclear non proliferation within the context of international security. David chase taylors free ebook entitled the nuclear bible reveals how pakistan, whether they know it or not, has been linked to almost every single major act of nuclear proliferation on record see full list below. Brunei darussalam, cambodia, indonesia, laos, malaysia, myanmar, philippines, singapore, thailand, and vietnam. It is the sense of the congress that the president should pursue a policy which seeks a regional negotiated solution to the issue of nuclear non proliferation in south asia at the earliest possible time, including a protocol to be signed by all nuclear weapons states, prohibiting nuclear attacks by nuclear weapons states on countries in the region. Pakistani and indian nuclear programs the nuclear programs of pakistan and india present a vivid contrast. Though, nuclear weapons have prevented the reoccurrence of major conventional wars deterrence has remained fragile and peace precarious. Another concern was chinas expanding nuclear arsenal and its territorial claims in south china sea, which involved it in disputes with four.
Japan, south korea, and egypt executive summary nuclear activity in north korea and iran presents numerous challenges to the global nonproliferation regime. This conclusion is grounds for optimism about peace in south asia now that india and pakistan are overt nuclear weapons states. The global nuclear nonproliferation regime council on. One of the first books that links nuclear proliferation with protracted conflicts. This article aims to focus attention upon arguments about substance and mandate rethinking basic issues. Southeast asian nuclearweaponfree zone treaty wikipedia. The southeast asia nuclear weapon free zone treaty. In south asia, nuclear arsenal is seen as a great equaliser and the ultimate tool to counter adversarys present or future conventional strength. Nuclear proliferation dynamics in protracted conflict regions. Sovietrussian dialogue on nuclear proliferation in south asia. Assessing progress on nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. Given pakistans role as the greatest purveyor of terrorism and nuclear proliferation, it is only a matter of time before an act. A case for the regional consensus abdul shakoor khakwani the potential for proliferation of a high scale military and nuclear technology among the third world states has become a matter of grave concern for the western powers.
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